Saturday 28th January 2023
Today through Sunday widely scattered heavy rain and thunder, winds light.
Version 1: Sunday night through Tuesday, moderate to breezy southeast winds and periods of heavy rain and thunder.
Version 2: Sunday night through Tuesday, strong gusty winds from the east or south and widespread torrential rain with frequent and dangerous lightning. Considerable flooding likely.
A stalled front has deep moisture over our island today. Light winds allow afternoon heating to trigger more widely scattered thunderstorms in the area.
An upper level trough to our west pulls deep tropical moisture over us from the south through mid-week next week. The trough also brings cold air aloft, which destabilizes our atmosphere. Models show a surface low forming under the right exit region this upper level feature.
The GFS forms the low to our east (2nd chart). This path has strong winds and convergent flow just off our eastern shore.
Other models (ECMWF, NAM, WRF, Canadian) show the surface low over us or just to our west, with strong winds and convergent flow over windward Hawaii island (3rd chart).
We're going to have to wait and see who is right.