Puna Weather

Saturday 23rd September 2023

Today through Wednesday continued typical windward weather with moderate easterly Trades and scattered showers, mostly during the night and morning hours.
A little bit of a bump in humidity and showers is likely Thursday through the upcoming weekend.
The NHC shows Invest 97E having a 70% chance of development as it heads west embedded in a tropical wave. The GFS has backed off on developing the low, but the latest satellite loop looks like the GFS may be wrong about this. Either way this feature encounters hostile conditions in the form of mid-level dry and stable air along with substantial westerly shear as it enters the central Pacific basin in a couple of days.
As it passes by we should expect only a modest increase in low level moisture, but with some enhanced dynamics for a general increase in shower coverage from Thursday (yes, earlier now) through Saturday or Sunday.
Also in the latest GFS run we now see our first forecasted Kona low of the season slated for October 6th. Early season Kona lows tend to be weaker than the mid/late season ones (December through April).