Friday 27th January 2023
Today through Monday/Tuesday periods of heavy rain with thunder possible. Activity is widely scattered today and Saturday, becoming more frequent and widespread around Sunday.
Winds are likely to be mostly light through Sunday.
Mountain snows are a good bet.
A stalled front over us is maintaining very moist conditions through tomorrow (lightning animation). Temperatures aloft are cold enough to support some thunder in the area. This activity is likely to increase each afternoon due to heating from the sun.
An upper level trough brings deep southerly flow (2nd chart) and a reinforcing blow of colder air aloft beginning Sunday. Moist and unstable conditions will allow for heavy showers and thunder Monday or Tuesday.
Light winds limit the shower coverage, but anchored activity could lead to localized flooding. If winds pick up, from either the south or east, expect more rain.
At the surface, we see high pressure cells to our northwest and northeast supporting an inverted trough over our island chain (3rd chart). This pattern is forecast to hold through early next week. As the aforementioned upper level trough dives south on Sunday expect pockets of deep convection to form, mostly to our south and east.